10
Storm Point
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 77
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y
#9
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Newbury | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-08 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 9th | 85/40 | 89% | 27% | -0.62 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 08/12/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 45% | -0.39 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |