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Vincent Rocks

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 81

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Posted good second at Kempton on final outing for Hugo Palmer in July and backed that up with creditable fifth at Newcastle (1m) on first run for new yard 3 weeks later. Not in same form back at Kempton latest, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 31/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m75y GS 13331/0755 @ Southwell 17/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m13y Std 1354 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 86 · 1m2f Goo 136 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 86 par19/094OR 862 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 20th of 22 · OR 86 · 1m Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 84 · 1m6y Goo 134 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 84 par29/044OR 843 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 83 · 1m2f70y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 82 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 82 par2/074OR 824 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 84 · 1m5y Sta 141 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 83 · 1m Sta 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 83 par5/092OR 83projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kempton211th9th+2
2026-07-25Newcastle45th5th0
2026-07-02Kempton42nd2nd0
2026-06-13Chester310th9th+1
2026-04-29Pontefract43rd3rd0
2026-03-28Doncaster220th18th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0728/032/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
17/08/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
19/09/20259th10/382%27%-0.55
28/03/202620th11/142%10%-0.33
29/04/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
13/06/202610th17/255%0%-0.55
02/07/20262nd7/163%89%+0.26
25/07/20265th14/126%69%+0.43
05/09/202611th40/10%23%+0.23