5
Winston's Warrior
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 80
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Sandown | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Nottingham | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Lingfield | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 30% | -0.36 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |