7

Ma Blushin Rosie

2yo Filly · 8-13

Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ardad filly who was well backed and showed ability amidst signs of inexperience when third in 7-runner novice at Carlisle (6f) on debut in August. Shaped better than the distance beaten suggests at Thirsk subsequently having made her effort earlier than ideal and remains with potential up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f182y Goo 12819/0842 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS5/092projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk25th3rd+2
2026-08-19Carlisle43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength73%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/08/20263rd10/382%67%-0.16
05/09/20265th4/179%67%-0.12