4
Orfilia
2yo Filly · 9-2
Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -96.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 09/09/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 42% | -0.40 |