6
Afraj
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 78
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Leicester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |