11
Bella Bisbee
5yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 69
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y
#8
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Ffos Las | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 09/07/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 58% | +0.16 |