3
Chantelle
3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 79
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-26 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -22.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/01/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 33% | -0.62 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |