Enola Grey
6yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 68
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y
#11
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Lingfield | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 09/01/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.20 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |