4
Handle With Care
4yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 76
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y
#7
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lingfield | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-19 | Kempton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength23%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 23/07/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 15/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 31/12/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 19/01/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |