IvyArcIvyArc
1

Inside Story

3yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 82

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened her account at third time of asking here this time last year and has found improvement this season, finishing runner-up in back-to-back Wolverhampton handicaps (both 7f) in recent months. Likely player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 14/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 6f3y Goo 12814/0554 @ Kempton 09/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f Sta 1285 @ Southwell 04/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f16y Std 1284/0951 @ Newmarket 31/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 80 · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 83 · 6f Sta 134 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 83 par4/034OR 834 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 82 · 7f1y Std 127 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 133 · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 80 par16/064OR 804 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 79 · 7f36y Std 129 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Wolverhampton 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 82 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 82 par18/084OR 82projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-18Wolverhampton42nd2nd0
2026-07-31Wolverhampton42nd2nd0
2026-06-16Thirsk48th8th0
2026-05-12Lingfield44th4th0
2026-03-04Kempton45th5th0
2025-10-31Newmarket17th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0531/1016/0618/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/05/20255th10/147%43%-0.05
09/07/20252nd7/282%89%+0.07
04/09/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
31/10/20257th80/10%67%+0.67
04/03/20265th25/10%43%+0.43
12/05/20264th7/282%63%-0.19
16/06/20268th16/116%22%+0.06
31/07/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
18/08/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03