10
Lope El Fuego
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 72
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y
#12
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength61%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kempton | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Newbury | 1 | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-07-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Newbury | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 23/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 15/08/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 25/05/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 09/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 05/09/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |