Patricia R

4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 78

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y

#10

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C4.5

Today: 4

Class gap: -0.5

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2025-09-06	Thirsk	3	10th	9th	+1	1.2
2025-08-20	Carlisle	5	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2025-07-10	Doncaster	5	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2025-06-06	Thirsk	5	1st	2nd	−1	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -34.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/06/2025	1st	12/1	37%	100%	+0.63
10/07/2025	2nd	9/1	53%	88%	+0.35
20/08/2025	1st	8/11	96%	100%	+0.04
06/09/2025	10th	9/1	53%	10%	-0.43