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12

Audere

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 45

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 6f 16y

#10

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looks a poor maiden and she came in a below-par sixth of 11 in handicap at Lingfield (7f, all-weather) 26 days ago. Easy to look elsewhere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 28/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 6f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0554 @ Kempton 09/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Windsor 28/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0756 @ Chelmsford City 30/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 52 · 7f Std 132 · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Southwell 27/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 50 · 4f214y Std 120 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 50 par27/096OR 506 @ Chelmsford City 30/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 47 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 47 par6 @ Nottingham 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 45 · 6f18y Goo 126 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 45 par30/076OR 456 @ Lingfield 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 45 · 7f1y Std 121 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 45 par27/086OR 45projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Lingfield66th6th0
2026-07-30Nottingham64th4th0
2025-10-30Chelmsford City66th6th0
2025-09-27Southwell68th8th0
2025-08-30Chelmsford City66th6th0
2025-07-28Windsor56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0530/0830/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20257th80/10%0%0.00
09/07/20259th150/10%11%+0.11
28/07/20256th80/10%38%+0.38
30/08/20256th7/163%0%-0.63
27/09/20258th33/10%13%+0.13
30/10/20256th28/10%38%+0.38
30/07/20264th18/15%50%+0.45
27/08/20266th80/10%50%+0.50