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13

Independent Angel

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 45

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 6f 16y

#12

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made her first real impact when fourth over 6f at Carlisle in June but has twice failed to back that effort up at Chepstow and Ffos Las. Hood is refitted here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 07/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS7/0856 @ Redcar 17/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 120 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Chelmsford City 30/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 45 par30/106OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 04/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 45 · 5f21y Std 120 · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Southwell 26/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 45 · 4f214y Std 121 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 45 par26/036OR 456 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 45 · 5f8y Goo 121 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 45 · 5f182y Sft 126 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 45 par8/066OR 456 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f16y GF 126 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 45 · 7f80y Gd 126 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 45 par21/086OR 45projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Ffos Las610th10th0
2026-08-09Chepstow67th7th0
2026-06-08Carlisle64th4th0
2026-04-18Nottingham612th12th0
2026-03-26Southwell610th10th0
2025-11-04Wolverhampton64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/084/118/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength33%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20258th500/10%13%+0.13
17/10/20256th100/10%29%+0.29
30/10/20259th66/10%0%0.00
04/11/20254th100/10%40%+0.40
26/03/202610th125/10%18%+0.18
18/04/202612th66/10%31%+0.31
08/06/20264th50/10%63%+0.63
09/08/20267th25/10%14%+0.14
21/08/202610th50/10%18%+0.18