11
Long Shot
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 46
Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 6f 16y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catterick | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 46% | -0.30 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 18/07/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.21 |