Overbudget
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 57
Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 6f 16y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Thirsk | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Doncaster | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-04 | Windsor | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 31/03/2026 | 2nd | 30/100 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 04/05/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |