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4

Stoneacre Joe

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 57

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 6f 16y

#1

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

29%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran to a fair level when runner-up on first 2 starts this season. Hasn't gone on from those efforts since, though, tried in blinkers when third of 6 in maiden at Catterick (6f, good) 14 days ago. Makes tapeta debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 21/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 5f217y GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS21/0654 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 6f2y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS5/0545 @ Haydock 21/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 75 · 6f Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Catterick 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 73 par30/054OR 735 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 71 · 6f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 68 · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 68 par18/074OR 684 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 65 · 6f2y GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 60 · 5f212y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 60 par8/095OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick53rd2nd+1
2026-08-01Doncaster43rd1st+2
2026-07-18Ripon44th2nd+2
2026-06-19Ayr55th4th+1
2026-05-30Catterick44th2nd+2
2026-05-21Haydock58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0621/0518/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20259th33/10%11%+0.11
24/04/20262nd100/10%92%+0.92
05/05/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
21/05/20268th11/271%30%-0.41
30/05/20264th11/1094%40%-0.54
19/06/20265th9/488%43%-0.45
18/07/20264th13/266%0%-0.66
01/08/20263rd8/158%33%-0.25
08/09/20263rd9/153%60%+0.07