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4

Fabled Spirit

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 58

Southwell · Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap · 2m 102y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a deserved first win in 6-runner handicap at Lingfield (2m, all-weather) 19 days ago. Showed a good attitude there so he's very much one to consider on his tapeta debut with few miles still on the clock.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 25/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS25/0544 @ Lingfield 06/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS6/0644 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS15/0646 @ Bath 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 55 · 1m6f Fm 142 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 55 par31/076OR 556 @ Lingfield 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 54 · 1m7f169y Std 126 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 54 par8/086OR 546 @ Lingfield 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 55 · 1m7f169y Std 126 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 55 par3/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Lingfield61st1st0
2026-08-08Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-07-31Bath63rd3rd0
2026-06-15Windsor410th8th+2
2026-06-06Lingfield48th6th+2
2026-05-25Leicester411th9th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/056/0615/0631/078/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/202611th11/142%9%-0.33
06/06/20268th10/147%0%-0.47
15/06/202610th200/10%25%+0.25
31/07/20263rd17/255%33%-0.22
08/08/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
03/09/20261st5/493%100%+0.07