Further Measure
9yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 57
Southwell · Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap · 2m 102y
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 24/02/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |