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6

Head Girl

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 57

Southwell · Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap · 2m 102y

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on the drop into selling company when a breakthrough winner at Beverley (1½m) in July. Backed it up with a very good second of 8 in handicap at Chepstow (1½m, soft) 24 days ago. Well in the mix if lasting out over this much longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 22/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0955 @ Bath 09/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Bath 30/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 1m Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS30/1046 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 53 · 1m4f51y Std 133 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Lingfield 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 52 · 1m3f133y Goo 132 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 52 par30/056OR 526 @ Epsom Downs 01/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 53 · 1m4f6y Goo 125 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 52 · 1m4f23y Goo 124 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 52 par28/076OR 526 @ Chepstow 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 57 · 1m4f Goo 131 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 57 par29/086OR 57projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-07-28Beverley61st1st0
2026-07-01Epsom Downs69th9th0
2026-05-30Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-04-27Wolverhampton69th9th0
2025-10-30Bath47th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0927/0428/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/202511th33/10%9%+0.09
09/10/20256th300/10%44%+0.44
30/10/20257th66/10%40%+0.40
27/04/20269th9/276%20%-0.56
30/05/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
01/07/20269th6/168%11%-0.57
28/07/20261st85/4089%100%+0.11
29/08/20262nd7/491%86%-0.05