Last Flight
3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 57
Southwell · Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap · 2m 102y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Ffos Las | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Bath | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-27 | Lingfield | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 27/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 56% | +0.50 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |