5
Rogue Desire
3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 57
Southwell · Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap · 2m 102y
#7
Rank
Odds
150/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength80%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Kempton | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-08-14 | Salisbury | 2 | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength30%
Delivery trend +9.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |