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4

Brazilian Belle

4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72

Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y

#1

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

72%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded back-to-back wins over C&D and at Wolverhampton (5f) in the winter. Off since beating one in handicap at Thirsk (5f, good) in May so needs to hit the ground running.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Musselburgh 13/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 5f1y Gd 134 · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 73 par13/105OR 735 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Newcastle 18/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 73 · 5f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 73 par18/114OR 735 @ Newcastle 05/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 5f Std 132 · below its mark05/12/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Southwell 06/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 70 · 4f214y Std 131 · beat its mark06/01/2026 · OR 70 par6/015OR 705 @ Southwell 07/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 69 · 4f214y Std 129 · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 71 · 5f21y Std 131 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 71 par20/035OR 715 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 73 · 4f214y Std 133 · below its mark07/04/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 17 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 73 par16/054OR 73projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-16Thirsk416th15th+1
2026-04-07Southwell56th6th0
2026-03-20Wolverhampton51st1st0
2026-02-07Southwell51st1st0
2026-01-06Southwell53rd3rd0
2025-12-05Newcastle57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/105/1220/0316/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/10/20253rd7/163%78%+0.15
17/10/20255th85/4089%56%-0.33
18/11/20254th14/126%73%+0.46
05/12/20257th6/168%25%-0.43
06/01/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
07/02/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
20/03/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
07/04/20266th11/486%29%-0.57
16/05/202616th14/126%6%-0.20