6
Courageous Sioux
3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 71
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Thirsk | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |