Goyard
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 74
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ripon | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Pontefract | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 20/09/2025 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 22% | -0.33 |
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 06/07/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 13% | -0.72 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 01/09/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |
| 19/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |