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4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 73

Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/6

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole success came at Thirsk in 2024 for Bryan Smart. Off 21 months but back in good form for his current yard, second at Thirsk (5f) before poorly drawn when in midfield in handicap at York (5.4f, good) 16 days ago. Weighted to go well on his tapeta debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 06/07/2024 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 5f Gd 1336/0754 @ Ayr 22/07/2024 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 5f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS2 @ York 21/08/2024 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 72 · 6f GF 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2024 · OR 72 par21/082OR 725 @ Thirsk 07/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark07/09/2024 · OR 72 par3 @ York 11/10/2024 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 79 · 5f Sft 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2024 · OR 79 par11/103OR 794 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 76 · 5f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 73 par25/074OR 734 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 74 · 5f89y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 74 par6/094OR 74projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York411th10th+1
2026-08-14Thirsk42nd1st+1
2026-07-25York43rd2nd+1
2026-07-03Beverley45th4th+1
2024-10-11York38th6th+2
2024-09-07Thirsk51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/077/0925/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20243rd12/137%83%+0.46
22/07/20243rd3/184%33%-0.51
21/08/202410th14/126%44%+0.17
07/09/20241st5/287%100%+0.13
11/10/20248th17/255%22%-0.33
03/07/20265th11/142%43%+0.01
25/07/20263rd6/168%88%+0.19
14/08/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
06/09/202611th13/266%50%-0.16