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Rogue Bullet

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 75

Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored at Brighton in June on stable debut but hasn't kicked on in 4 subsequent outings, only eighth of 9 in handicap at Goodwood (5f, good) 25 days ago. Needs to take a step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 30/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 72 · 5f21y GF 132 · beat its mark30/06/2025 · OR 72 par30/065OR 724 @ Thirsk 02/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 76 · 4f214y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 76 par24/104OR 765 @ Bath 29/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 75 · 5f10y Fm 135 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 73 · 5f60y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 73 par21/064OR 735 @ Lingfield 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 73 · 4f217y Goo 138 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 80 · 5f GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 80 par17/074OR 804 @ Chepstow 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f16y GF 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Goodwood 28/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 77 · 5f GF 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 77 par28/084OR 77projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Goodwood48th7th+1
2026-08-06Chepstow42nd1st+1
2026-07-17Newmarket43rd2nd+1
2026-06-27Lingfield54th4th0
2026-06-21Brighton41st0th+1
2026-04-29Bath55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0629/0417/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/06/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
02/08/202510th13/266%31%-0.35
24/10/20256th33/10%38%+0.38
29/04/20265th6/168%20%-0.48
21/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
27/06/20264th5/493%25%-0.68
17/07/20263rd2/189%67%-0.23
06/08/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
28/08/20268th11/142%13%-0.30