Assail
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 83
Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Kempton | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Southwell | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Southwell | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Southwell | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 69% | +0.01 |
| 25/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 06/09/2025 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 28/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 28/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |