10
Cliff Danger
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 76
Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Wetherby | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 05/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.23 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |