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Fierce Fortitude

4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 89

Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y

#9

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 4-y-o who doubled his career tally at Redcar (1¼m) in April. Off since beating only one in handicap at Newmarket (1½m, firm) in July but could still do better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 17/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f16y Std 13317/0855 @ Kempton 27/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 1305 @ Newcastle 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f14y Std 13319/0955 @ Brighton 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 78 · 6f210y Goo 133 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 84 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 84 par20/034OR 843 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 1m2f1y GF 131 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 90 · 1m2f1y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 90 par25/052OR 902 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 90 · 1m4f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 90 par4/072OR 90projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Newmarket211th10th+1
2026-05-25Redcar23rd2nd+1
2026-04-30Redcar31st1st0
2026-03-20Wolverhampton42nd3rd−1
2025-09-29Brighton51st3rd−2
2025-09-19Newcastle52nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0829/0925/054/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20254th6/168%57%-0.11
27/08/20253rd22/10%75%+0.75
19/09/20252nd10/382%80%-0.02
29/09/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
20/03/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
30/04/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
25/05/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
04/07/202611th12/137%9%-0.28