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Nolton Cross

7yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 85

Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

89%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Wolverhampton (1½m) in February. Bounced back to form when second at Chester (1¼m) but ridden too aggressively when fifth of 7 there (1¼m) later in July. Possibilities.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Wolverhampton 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 1m4f51y Std 139 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 89 par6/023OR 892 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 92 · 1m4f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ Kempton 02/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 92 · 1m3f219y Sta 135 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 92 par2/033OR 922 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 91 · 1m2f42y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m4f GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 90 par2/052OR 903 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 89 · 1m5f16y Gd 134 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 89 par4 @ Nottingham 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 87 · 1m2f50y Goo 136 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 87 par20/064OR 873 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 85 · 1m2f70y Goo 135 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 85 · 1m2f70y Goo 142 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 85 par25/074OR 85projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Chester45th6th−1
2026-07-10Chester32nd2nd0
2026-06-20Nottingham45th6th−1
2026-05-17Hamilton39th9th0
2026-05-02Newmarket28th7th+1
2026-04-03Newcastle213th12th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/023/0420/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength25%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
21/02/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
02/03/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
03/04/202613th33/10%8%+0.08
02/05/20268th28/10%0%0.00
17/05/20269th16/116%27%+0.11
20/06/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
10/07/20262nd25/10%86%+0.86
25/07/20265th4/179%33%-0.46