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4yo Colt · 9-12 · OR 86

Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y

#6

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressive on all-weather in 2025 when a dual winner. Quickly back on track following a 12-week break when runner-up over 11f at Kempton in February. Off since but he remains with potential.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength13%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m2f Std 1339/1055 @ Kempton 15/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m3f219y Sta 13015/1055 @ Chelmsford City 23/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m2f Std 13323/1054 @ Wolverhampton 04/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 1m4f51y Std 130 · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 80 par4/114OR 802 @ Southwell 28/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 84 · 1m4f14y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 84 par28/112OR 844 @ Kempton 18/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 84 · 1m2f219y Sta 137 · beat its mark18/02/2026 · OR 84 par18/024OR 84projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-18Kempton42nd3rd−1
2025-11-28Southwell25th4th+1
2025-11-04Wolverhampton41st2nd−1
2025-10-23Chelmsford City51st3rd−2
2025-10-15Kempton53rd5th−2
2025-10-09Chelmsford City55th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1015/1023/104/1128/1118/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20255th8/158%20%-0.38
15/10/20253rd18/15%75%+0.70
23/10/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
04/11/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
28/11/20255th4/179%33%-0.46
18/02/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11