The Green Mile
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 87
Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Leicester | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Chepstow | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 4 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Ascot | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 29/09/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 12/10/2024 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/04/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |