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4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 90

Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Kempton (1½m) in April. In and out since, off 3 months before a below-par seventh of 11 in handicap there (1½m) 17 days ago. Needs to take a step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chester 13/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 1m2f70y Gd 129 · beat its mark13/06/2025 · OR 79 par13/064OR 794 @ Thirsk 02/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 85 · 1m4f8y Goo 135 · beat its mark02/07/2025 · OR 85 par3 @ Ascot 09/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 89 · 1m3f211y Goo 140 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 89 par9/083OR 892 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 89 · 1m3f211y Sft 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 89 par3 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 87 · 1m3f219y Sta 132 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 87 par6/043OR 873 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 90 · 1m4f6y Gd 130 · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Newmarket 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 90 · 1m4f Gd 135 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 90 par15/053OR 902 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 91 · 1m3f39y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 91 par3 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 91 · 1m3f219y Sta 131 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 91 par5/093OR 91projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kempton37th7th0
2026-05-30Carlisle212th11th+1
2026-05-15Newmarket32nd2nd0
2026-04-28Epsom Downs35th5th0
2026-04-06Kempton31st1st0
2025-09-06Ascot27th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/066/0915/055/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
02/07/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
09/08/20254th7/282%57%-0.24
06/09/20257th28/10%0%0.00
06/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
28/04/20265th6/492%0%-0.92
15/05/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15
30/05/202612th11/142%0%-0.42
05/09/20267th4/179%40%-0.39