Tryfan
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 83
Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y
#7
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Newbury | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 2 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Salisbury | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Newcastle | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Newcastle | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 16/01/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 03/04/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 14/05/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |