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9

Urchin

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 85

Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Wide-margin winner of 11f novice at Ripon on return. Looked a hard ride (hung badly left early) when an odds-on second of 3 in novice at Beverley (1½m, good to firm) in May. Remains with potential after a layoff on his handicap debut for good yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ripon 16/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/0824 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m2f190y GS 12316/0443 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR - · 1m4f23y Goo 13030/053projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-30Beverley32nd2nd0
2026-04-16Ripon41st2nd−1
2025-08-16Ripon23rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0816/0430/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -35.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20253rd8/158%82%+0.24
16/04/20261st4/998%100%+0.02
30/05/20262nd1/297%50%-0.47