Carillo
8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 88
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 02/07/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 05/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 04/08/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |