8
Florida Gator
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |