1
Impressiveness
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 28/11/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |