Pace
6yo Horse · 8-7 · OR 87
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
61%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |