6
Sailor's Chance
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 03/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 10/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |