4
So Dialed In
8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 24/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 16/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |