7
Z Boss
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 09/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 22/12/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 24/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |