2
Canela Fina
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 31
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 17/09/2024 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 02/10/2024 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 20/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |