4
Gemshine
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 29
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |