5
Truest Air
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 29
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
74%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 30/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 20/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |