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5

Exodus

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 67

Thistledown · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

87%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f 1226/05C6C9 @ Churchill Downs 23/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 85 · 6f Gd 118 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 85 par23/05C9OR 85C6 @ Thistledown 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 70 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 70 par12/08C6OR 70C6 @ Thistledown 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 68 par1/09C6OR 68projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-08-12Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-05-23Churchill Downs?8th11th−3
2026-05-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0523/0512/081/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +8.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/05/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27
23/05/20268th5/493%22%-0.71
12/08/20262nd5/696%75%-0.21
01/09/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14