4
Fanti
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-02-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |