3
Talldrinkofwater
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 40
Thistledown · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength20%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 26/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |